Bloomberg TV: We watch crude oil prices very closely. The price went down from $37 a barrel to $35. How much of a downside do you see out there?
JIM: I am not smart enough—$32 a barrel or $30—I don’t know. I am not that good. If there’s a spike down—if something happens like a bankruptcy—it can go to $30 or even lower. But, I would suspect, and I am not any good at market economy and I am the world’s worst trader, I would say $32 at worst as a complicated bottom.
Bloomberg TV: What are you buying? Or, are you just taking a long break from the markets after this kind of prognosis?
JIM: I am not doing much. I am sorting junk bonds as I said. I am sorting US government junk bonds. I might buy some more Chinese shares if they come down some more. I am looking at markets like Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Iran and Russia—markets that are beaten down. These are the markets that are beaten down because of oil (price slump). The remaining is that I am just watching at the moment to see how this plays out. I don’t have to do something every day.
Bloomberg TV: I want to know more of your trades. There is a lot happening across the world. Let’s break it out. Brazil has been rated as junk and it is a big fall in terms of sentiment. What repercussions do these have on the BRICS? What is your take on Brazil?
JIM: I am not investing in Brazil with my money or even your money. Brazil is such a mess and management in Brazil has been such a mess. Until they get a new leader, I am not investing in Brazil.
Bloomberg TV: China is being seen in a structural slowdown. Last time when you said that you had completely exited India and your bet was on China, there was a lot of debate. We are now aware about how China was really the wrong story to bet on. Are you still sticking to that?
JIM: Well, China has been the strongest stock market in the world in 2015. They are not the strongest but certainly one of the strongest. Anybody who says that must be losing money themselves because China has been a very good stock market over the past twelve months—it is up a 15 or 20 per cent. The American stock market is down during that period of time. I am still invested in China. I am still looking for investments.
Bloomberg TV: Many are expecting the Chinese markets or the Chinese economy to slow down structurally. What is your call on the economy because after all the markets are a reflection of which way you see the economy going?
JIM: Well, I expect nearly all economies around the world to slow down. In America, we have had nearly six or seven years without a correction in the economy or the markets. It is long overdue. Normally, we have corrections every four to seven years in the United States. So we are overdue. The debt is going higher and higher. Many of our customers are slowing down—China is slowing down and Japan is in recession. Now, I certainly expect more slowdown to come worldwide. As is said before, I am mainly just watching right now. I have sorted some junk right now—junk bonds in US—and I am mainly just watching.
via http://www.btvin.com/article/read/news/3756/-third-fed-rate-hike-is-where-you-have-to-start-worrying-
